Mad_Max Posted December 23, 2013 Report Share Posted December 23, 2013 for those of you that are not following the weather,it looks interesting the next few days. Weather underground has continuously changed their forecast - seems like every few hours - so nothing is certain. Weather.com- which is usually unreliable - matches weather underground forecast for rain on Thursday - so when they both are in sync, seems like something will happen- but so far still probability of 30% rain at this moment in time for Thursday - Maybe some of you weather experts can explain what is coming our way:) and why the forecast is changing every few hours - http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=zmw:00000.12.76613 http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/Chapala+MXDO0241:1:MX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVGRINGO Posted December 24, 2013 Report Share Posted December 24, 2013 Those are just computer models and cannot be expected to be accurate; not even close. The climate at Lake Chapala is a micro-climate buffered by the lake and surrounding mountains. The nearest weather station providing information is probably at the GDL airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhark Posted December 24, 2013 Report Share Posted December 24, 2013 Well, it rained in La Canacinta this afternoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bournemouth Posted December 24, 2013 Report Share Posted December 24, 2013 And in Ajijic - and it's seriously cool - at least for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad_Max Posted December 24, 2013 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2013 Those are just computer models and cannot be expected to be accurate; not even close. The climate at Lake Chapala is a micro-climate buffered by the lake and surrounding mountains. The nearest weather station providing information is probably at the GDL airport. Actually, in my opinion, weather underground has some credibility. They may say it is going to rain at 2, and instead it rains at 11. But I would guess that they may have a 10% accuracy for rain (within a 12 hour or so time period) - and their nearest weather station providing input is in riberas not the GDL airport. However, I don't know if they do or do not use data from one of their personal weather stations - chapalaweather.net - but they do display the data on their site - so it would be easy for them to use. As for weather.com - what you said definitely applies to them. But weatherunderground.com does a better job - probably because they do have a personal weather station in riberas. For example- today they predicted rain at 5 pm - and I think it rained about 3:30 where i am. Are they 100% accurate? Absolutely not. But they did make the call for rain today - as well as a few days ago when it also rained. Would I bet money on their forecast? No. Would I put an umbrella in the car? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhark Posted December 24, 2013 Report Share Posted December 24, 2013 Here is a new site that is actually a beta version. The information is taken from the airport and not the lake. You can also find your other favorite places to check. http://weatherspark.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mainecoons Posted December 24, 2013 Report Share Posted December 24, 2013 It's raining at our house right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
callejera Posted December 24, 2013 Report Share Posted December 24, 2013 Raining here in San Antonio too right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaykay Posted December 25, 2013 Report Share Posted December 25, 2013 Actually, some forecasts are saying rain thru Saturday, and at a higher probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeside7 Posted December 25, 2013 Report Share Posted December 25, 2013 Our thermometer shows 61F outside. I guess with the wind chill it could be down to 50F to night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johanson Posted December 25, 2013 Report Share Posted December 25, 2013 Didn't I read that the Weather Undergrounds weather station in Riberas is www.chapalaweather.net/ which is the station run by Steve and the one most of us go to. I understand that he shares his data with The Weather Underground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giltner68 Posted December 25, 2013 Report Share Posted December 25, 2013 You don't actually start "measuring" wind chill until you get down around 40 degrees F. So in essence, we never see "wind chill" here at the lake because the lowest temp in recent years was 40 and only for a few minutes one morning. Now, I feel the "chill" from the E winds which blow out of the mountains of Michoacan etc. and if we cloud over you feel it for sure. And our houses here are essentially big pizza ovens and when they're hot they retain the heat, this time of year they cool and you will radiate body heat to cooler surfaces over 10' away so we feel the "chill" in our casas more than NOB in well insulated structures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mainecoons Posted December 25, 2013 Report Share Posted December 25, 2013 Looking better today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad_Max Posted December 25, 2013 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2013 Didn't I read that the Weather Undergrounds weather station in Riberas is www.chapalaweather.net/ which is the station run by Steve and the one most of us go to. I understand that he shares his data with The Weather Underground. yes - he is a personal weather station for weather underground and there are many places where they display his data - for example, right now WU displays Steve's webcam. They must be also using his data for modeling purposes - as the information on weather underground always seems a little bit more accurate than others - which doesn't mean it is really accurate - just more accurate. The current forecast for chapala seems real dynamic - haven't seen it change this much recently - but then again - I only check on occasion. at this moment, no rain for today and the probability has gone up for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad_Max Posted December 25, 2013 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2013 You don't actually start "measuring" wind chill until you get down around 40 degrees F. So in essence, we never see "wind chill" here at the lake because the lowest temp in recent years was 40 and only for a few minutes one morning. Now, I feel the "chill" from the E winds which blow out of the mountains of Michoacan etc. and if we cloud over you feel it for sure. And our houses here are essentially big pizza ovens and when they're hot they retain the heat, this time of year they cool and you will radiate body heat to cooler surfaces over 10' away so we feel the "chill" in our casas more than NOB in well insulated structures. And perhaps you could weigh in on why the current forecast is constantly changing. Don't think I have seen it this dynamic before:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepez Posted December 27, 2013 Report Share Posted December 27, 2013 Mad Max, don't know what it's been doing in Ajijic where you live, but it's been cloudy and/or raining all day today (26 December) here in Joco. In fact, it's pouring again right now! So somebody was right in their forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex45920 Posted December 27, 2013 Report Share Posted December 27, 2013 I think we got more of the same coming for a couple of days. Take a look at the NOAA Water Vapor Loop. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShanConshue Posted December 27, 2013 Report Share Posted December 27, 2013 POURING in mirasol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaykay Posted December 27, 2013 Report Share Posted December 27, 2013 The latest forecast says 90% chance tonight and 80% tomorrow, with Saturday at 40%. I wonder if we got enough to make things green again? The same forecaster is saying real rain on Jan. 2. This HAS to be doing some good for the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monessen Posted December 27, 2013 Report Share Posted December 27, 2013 We had a cold rain much of the afternoon and even now (9:40 pm on 26 December) it is "spitting" in our area of Chapala. I even saw a short episode of hailstones around 4:30 pm. Wow, it IS chilly to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afgh Posted December 27, 2013 Report Share Posted December 27, 2013 brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr it rained almost all night in Ajijic.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bradshoe Posted December 27, 2013 Report Share Posted December 27, 2013 Here is a new site that is actually a beta version. The information is taken from the airport and not the lake. You can also find your other favorite places to check. http://weatherspark.com/ I'm a bit of a weather nut and this new site is great. You can choose °F or °C and entering 'Chapala' as your city actually gives different info than Guadalajara. Looks like Tuesday will be the first dry day and Wednesday will be the first sunny day - although we may see a little sun tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
La Aurora Posted December 27, 2013 Report Share Posted December 27, 2013 Looked at some recent pictures on a Mazamitla site and they have snow on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmh Posted December 27, 2013 Report Share Posted December 27, 2013 It is all good for the lake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gringal Posted December 27, 2013 Report Share Posted December 27, 2013 Yesterday early afternoon around Superlake headed west: (and in a car, you really hear it) lots of HAIL along with pouring rain. Today we got thoroughly drenched out shopping and now have our only radiator style heater on high while we hide in the office room. Yes, we're wusses, but it's seriously cold and wet out there. There's a swiftly running stream on the side street heading to the lake. But...........lucky us...........we have power. No outages so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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