Mainecoons Posted May 16, 2015 Report Share Posted May 16, 2015 Once again, your chance to be the leading amateur, and we do mean amateur, weather prognosticator on this board. Guess the start of the rainy season, as evidenced by: 1. Rainfall of 1/2 inch or more on the official start day. 2. At least 4 days of rainfall in the following week. 3. Rain obviously coming from the east or NE. 4. As measured at the weather station in Riberas. There's an interesting article in the GDL Reporter that the official prediction is for the rain to start June 12-13 but be a bit skimpy this year. Both make sense to me given the stronger westerlies apparently related to the growing El Nino event as well as the late position of the jet stream further south this year. The article reports heavy rain in parts of GDL when we had those sprinkles and lots of thunder recently. It's been a bit strange for a while, all that rain in March and right now a snowstorm in Northern Arizona! Anyway, I'll start with June 10. Official List: Glyn May 29 bigd May 31 KathyTX June 5 English Rose June 7 Indianamom June 6 Lakeside 101, Bennie2 June 9 Mainecoons, El Salto June 10 Hammerhead June 11 Cedros, Osoprehistorico June 12 Datura June 13 Gringal June 14 mhopkins2, thevalerieleigh June 15 adolphsj June 16 Jrod June 17 Senior Kentie June 18 Travis June 20 Most optimistic thus far: Glyn. bigd, you just got bumped, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shelley Ronnfeldt Posted May 16, 2015 Report Share Posted May 16, 2015 June 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semalu Posted May 16, 2015 Report Share Posted May 16, 2015 Take your pick , here is what Accuweather says about May and June. http://www.accuweather.com/en/mx/chapala/233287/may-weather/233287 http://www.accuweather.com/en/mx/chapala/233287/month/233287?monyr=6/01/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cedros Posted May 16, 2015 Report Share Posted May 16, 2015 June 12 Measured at my place in San Juan Cosala of course. 3 days of rain in the following week might be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indianamom Posted May 16, 2015 Report Share Posted May 16, 2015 I am going for early this year. The rainbirds have been singing for over a month here in El Limon. June 6th is my pick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrod Posted May 16, 2015 Report Share Posted May 16, 2015 Sticking with June 17. Of course, it will pour buckets on July 4 because we always have a (monsoon) party... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaykay Posted May 16, 2015 Report Share Posted May 16, 2015 I have just come in the house after covering our outdoor cat tree because at 3:25 PM it started to rain in San Juan, Not a duck drownder, but thunder and big drops. Looking at the rules for this contest, there may be no winner. Last year almost all our rain came from the Pacific. The newspapers said it was the most named storms in many years. It started early and ran late. That's why the lake got it's 34 inches. This March, there was enough rain to reverse the decline in the lake level for almost a month. The only weather site to predict the rain was Accuweather. The only rain to come from the east that I can remember hit Acapulco, who got beat up bad several times by storms. So, if it has to come from the East, maybe no winner. Fortunately, the Lake does not care where the water comes from, and if it comes from the Pacific, at least we get it first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adolphsj Posted May 16, 2015 Report Share Posted May 16, 2015 June 16. Last year's contest postings were hilarious. We always get a couple very heavy rains end of May at which someone pronounces an "early rainy season" which it ain't. See Mainecoon's rules... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammerhead Posted May 16, 2015 Report Share Posted May 16, 2015 It WILL happen June 11th. I have rain sticks ready and my Indian rain dance is almost down to perfection. JUNE 11th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mhopkins2 Posted May 16, 2015 Report Share Posted May 16, 2015 June 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natbug Posted May 16, 2015 Report Share Posted May 16, 2015 Given that my back yard is now a mini lake I'd say it has started now. However if we are sticking with the "obviously from the E or NE we may not have any "rainy season" at all this year as the vast majority of our rain is highly likely to come from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mainecoons Posted May 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 16, 2015 Folks, don't confuse late season pacific tropical storms which can move over us as the easterlies wane with the central Mexico rainy season which most assuredly is driven by Gulf of Mexico moisture riding the trade winds which move north during the summer here. These can carry tropical storms all the way across the country. Back in 2010 when we got those massive rains in June, that is exactly what happened. See figure 8 and the discussion on page 1674. http://www.climateknowledge.org/NA_precipitation/Douglas_Mexican_Monsoon_JClim_1993.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gringal Posted May 17, 2015 Report Share Posted May 17, 2015 June 14th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeside101 Posted May 17, 2015 Report Share Posted May 17, 2015 june 9th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senior kentie Posted May 17, 2015 Report Share Posted May 17, 2015 According to the Seattle Times prediction, the date will be on the 18th of June... or something like that... maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Osoprehistorico Posted May 17, 2015 Report Share Posted May 17, 2015 June 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thevalerieleigh Posted May 17, 2015 Report Share Posted May 17, 2015 I heard my first "rain bird" on May 1st, so I'm going with the traditional 45 day time so I'm gonna say June 15th. Valerie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bennie2 Posted May 17, 2015 Report Share Posted May 17, 2015 june 9th. rain is rain. a thunderstorm is a thunderstorm. but i dont make the rules. for me its still water coming down from the sky. i can pass on storms, will dance for light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Travis Posted May 18, 2015 Report Share Posted May 18, 2015 Well, since all the choice, traditional days are taken up…..and since the weather is so whacky all over the planet these days….I'll throw a hail Mary and go long and say, June 20. If it hasn't happened by then the local hand-wringing will be unbearable. And of course, I expect and hope it happens much sooner than that. LOVE the rainy season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KathyTX Posted May 19, 2015 Report Share Posted May 19, 2015 I'm going for early. June 5. There's a light rain falling now, in La Christina, coming from the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogerm Posted May 19, 2015 Report Share Posted May 19, 2015 May 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sasesofe Posted May 20, 2015 Report Share Posted May 20, 2015 Once again, your chance to be the leading amateur, and we do mean amateur, weather prognosticator on this board. Guess the start of the rainy season, as evidenced by: 1. Rainfall of 1/2 inch or more on the official start day. 2. At least 4 days of rainfall in the following week. 3. Rain obviously coming from the east or NE. 4. As measured at the weather station in Riberas. There's an interesting article in the GDL Reporter that the official prediction is for the rain to start June 12-13 but be a bit skimpy this year. Both make sense to me given the stronger westerlies apparently related to the growing El Nino event as well as the late position of the jet stream further south this year. The article reports heavy rain in parts of GDL when we had those sprinkles and lots of thunder recently. It's been a bit strange for a while, all that rain in March and right now a snowstorm in Northern Arizona! Anyway, I'll start with June 10. Official List: bigd May 31 KathyTX Ju ne 5 Indianamom June 6 Lakeside 101, Bennie2 June 9 Mainecoons June 10 Hammerhead June 11 Cedros, Osoprehistorico June 12 Datura June 13 Gringal June 14 mhopkins2, thevalerieleigh June 15 adolphsj June 16 Jrod June 17 Senior Kentie June 18 Travis June 20 Most optimistic thus far: bigd June 7th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparks Posted May 20, 2015 Report Share Posted May 20, 2015 MEXICO, DF 19 MAY 2015 (EDITORIAL) .- A statement from the National Weather Service said that tonight there is a high probability that in Jalisco heavy rains occur tomorrow and continue the high temperatures. According to the MTF, for tonight, the influx of moisture from the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, interacting with low pressure channels located inside Mexico, heavy rains favor (of 25-50 mm) in areas of Coahuila, Jalisco, Michoacan, San Luis Potosi, Mexico State, Queretaro, Hidalgo, Guerrero, Veracruz, Campeche and Yucatan. http://www.periodicoalinstante.com.mx/preven-fuertes-lluvias-y-altas-temperaturas-para-jalisco/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mainecoons Posted May 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2015 Yes, that confluence of the wetter than normal Pacific winds with the usual moisture from the east could make this very interesting. If you noticed the satellite views yesterday afternoon and early evening, there was heavy activity east of us. Bring it on, I just wrapped up the usual pre rainy season roof servicing and general repairs. Sparks, maybe you should pick May 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glyn Posted May 20, 2015 Report Share Posted May 20, 2015 May 29th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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