snowyco Posted June 29, 2016 Report Share Posted June 29, 2016 Conclusions Since the EU cannot force the UK Parliament to bring an Article 50 notification up for a vote: ... All the UK - EU trade agreements remain in place. ... All the UK - EU fiscal agreements remain in place. ... All the UK - EU immigration agreements remain in place. (for at least 4 months) As we've seen in the past, the Wall Street crowd are the fickle emotional 13 year old girls of the investing world, who run screaming in fear & panic when market values slip from record highs. . Those same 13-yr-old girls equally love exuberant outbursts when they bid stock prices back higher ... after they've caused a crash. Really, it is all 'business as usual' between the UK & the EU until the UK Parliament votes to approve an Article 50 notification. The only person who can call that vote (Cameron) has said he WILL NOT CALL IT ... and he specifically has said he will put it ALL off until after they have a national election, and only after there's a new Parliament elected, which he predicted no sooner than October. Sorry that these insights are not the dramatic exciting stuff of gossip and terror that Big Media talking heads love to inspire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bournemouth Posted June 29, 2016 Report Share Posted June 29, 2016 I thought Cameron said he would leave this for the new head of the Conservative Party to do and that person will take over in October. The mid rate of the peso on XE currently shows at 18.84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gringohombre Posted June 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2016 The Brits have voted to get out and that is that. Cameron has resigned and that is that. The process is going forward and that is that. Deal with it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmh Posted June 29, 2016 Report Share Posted June 29, 2016 and I say we will see...on way or the oher que sera sera.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowyco Posted June 29, 2016 Report Share Posted June 29, 2016 MXN Peso strengthens another 1.5% today, moving down to 18.6. Again, other than the 2 days of panic by Wall Street's 13-yr-old-girls ... and un-elected EU power players pouting ... it really is 'business as usual' . Hyperbolic & over-the-top proclamations are fun, and far more exciting than reality, but let's hope for rational, reasonable measured actions by our leaders until the UK Parliament vote in 3 - 4 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowyco Posted June 29, 2016 Report Share Posted June 29, 2016 The chairman of the world's biggest investment firm just announced that he believes that the UK are likely to 'Stay' in the EU, as 'voices of stability' are coming forward. The head of Blackrock is saying they see actions by the key players to 're-stabilize Europe', and he says that 'There is a 2 YEAR window for the UK to exit the EU '. The MXN peso has now strengthened further to $18.50. ... Maybe it's time to *get out the popcorn*, kick-back, and watch the show. **Disclaimer: 2 weeks before the Brexit vote, the wife & I sold every stock & every equity mutual fund we owned, when the S&P 500 was at its highest point in the previous year, moving over to tax-free municipal bonds at 4% a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrm30655 Posted June 29, 2016 Report Share Posted June 29, 2016 On 6/24/2016 at 6:37 AM, jrm30655 said: The Peso was just a momentary pop. It will be back is the mid 18s again in a few hours. It will go to 20+ but it will be low oil prices that do it As I said, mid 18s again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrm30655 Posted June 29, 2016 Report Share Posted June 29, 2016 16 hours ago, snowyco said: Facts seem to be more useful than musings & speculations. The MXN peso did not stay at Friday's one day losses. The MXN Peso is back in the $18 peso : $1 USD range, so the speculations of a rapid weakening to $20 MXN : $1 USD has not materialized. The Brexit referendum was not binding. The UK Parliament must vote whether to stay or leave the EU. There is no UK Parliament vote scheduled. The only UK party that can force a UK parliament vote (Stay or Leave) has said that they will not bring the issue to a vote until October. The unelected EU Commissioners can huff & puff about how much they want the British Parliament to vote, but the EU's Article 50 clearly specifies that the country desiring to leave ... must FIRST formally notify the EU that they want to leave. Under the UK Constitution, the UK Parliament is the only one that can approve the Article 50 formal notification of the EU. This is dreaming. Britain will leave the EU, they will prosper and more countries will leave. In a decade the EU will be only in history books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gringohombre Posted June 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2016 Why would the Brits go through the time and expense of this major national vote if it is not binding? I am sure that the Parliament vote is a pre-functionary one just to confirm the results otherwise the Brits are a little more daft than I thought (just kidding, my British relatives!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowyco Posted June 29, 2016 Report Share Posted June 29, 2016 1 hour ago, gringohombre said: Why would the Brits go through the time and expense of this major national vote if it is not binding? I am sure that the Parliament vote is a pre-functionary one just to confirm the results otherwise the Brits are a little more daft than I thought (just kidding, my British relatives!) .Facts are facts...No matter how personally disappointing, no matter how inconvenient, no matter how irrational the facts seem, ... facts are still reality.The Brexit referendum was legally non-binding.The MXN peso has NOT slid to the proclaimed $20 MXN to $1 USD ...The MXN peso has instead strengthened to $18.50.The facts don't fit what people imagined, There is no UK Parliament vote scheduled to vote on possibly leaving the EU.The only UK party that can force a UK parliament vote (Stay or Leave) has said: They will not bring the issue to a vote. UK political leaders officially said they will NOT VOTE until October or November, They are intentionally leaving the responsibility for officially/legally deciding to 'Stay' or 'Leave' for the next UK parliament to decide. Reality can be a slippery beastie to grasp ... but recognizing facts is a good first step. Embrace reality .... Enjoy some popcorn ... and watch the show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semalu Posted June 29, 2016 Report Share Posted June 29, 2016 16 hours ago, snowyco said: "....Those same 13-yr-old girls...." Hey, don't hide behind the girls, when it's the boys who are screaming in panic... :-) Other than that, you have hit the nail on the head. This vote is nothing more than an opportunity for Britain to renegotiate for better terms. Whether this means the end of EU or a renegotiated and strengthened EU remains to be seen but either way I think the main benefits can be retained under more realistic terms that allows each country to protect their own sovereignty - without an un-elected Brussels bureaucracy dishing out unilateral orders. \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Saltos Posted June 30, 2016 Report Share Posted June 30, 2016 Nothing is settled. It will take 2 years or more for this to play out. What happened this week is not the end but the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowyco Posted July 1, 2016 Report Share Posted July 1, 2016 Going back to the central topic of this thread: + MXN pesos supposedly weakening to $20 pesos to $1 US dollar ? Not likely this month... The MXN Peso has strengthened to $18.1 today. That's a 7% swing to a stronger peso, versus what some people announced that the MXN peso was going to crash to $20. ... What will the MXN Peso be worth next week ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el bartman Posted July 1, 2016 Report Share Posted July 1, 2016 Snowyco - you know of what you talk, good observations and I enjoyed reading them. As noted this is mx vs usd as the pesos shows stronger support against other currencies such as cdn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bennie2 Posted July 1, 2016 Report Share Posted July 1, 2016 snowyo as usual, the voice of reason. we were the only 2 members here who mentioned the parliment vote. i find the EU, & the potential north american union very creepy. check out the wonderful speech by judge jeanine piro. (right afer the vote). the oneworld kumaya takeover may be dissapearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Habacht Posted July 1, 2016 Report Share Posted July 1, 2016 The peso only moved because there was a large change in the interest rate...peso has now settled at 18.35 to 1....but you are correct that no one knows where any currency will be since....terror attacks, deaths of leaders, election of more fools, war, oil prices...etc can roil the water... Fred Habacht Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bennie2 Posted July 2, 2016 Report Share Posted July 2, 2016 IMO currencies are manipulated by people. the bankers & power brokers. then again, what do i know? im just your uneducated popularist conpiracy theorist who is usually right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Habacht Posted July 2, 2016 Report Share Posted July 2, 2016 actually....you seem to be almost right or dead wrong..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowyco Posted July 12, 2016 Report Share Posted July 12, 2016 Mexican peso has strengthened again against the US Dollar, moving to $18.45 yesterday, and even stronger today at $18.35, It is because of MXN peso strength, not US Dollar weakness. The US Dollar is very strong right now, with the Euro incredibly weak at $1.05, the Pound at $1.28 and the Yen at low weak values too. It looks like the panic-prediction of $20 pesos to $1 US dollar is not happening any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Habacht Posted July 12, 2016 Report Share Posted July 12, 2016 I believe that the sudden increase in oil after the decision on China's island grab effected all oil producers as does every sudden panic. China will suggest, as North Korea does, dire results and if they do not follow through then oil will drop again and so will the peso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowyco Posted July 12, 2016 Report Share Posted July 12, 2016 Interesting... When was the 'sudden increase in oil' ? Oil (NYMEX crude) has been trading at between $44 - $50 a barrel (or higher) for most of this past year: 8 months out of the last 12 months. There was a slow move down for 2 months last December... due to the USA & Saudis pumping massively increased amounts of oil, that increased the millions of bbs in stored reserves and the floating storage of oil (in 1,000's of retired oil tankers) surged... but there has been no sudden increase in oil according to Bloomberg, Schlumberger, et al: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Saltos Posted July 12, 2016 Report Share Posted July 12, 2016 3 hours ago, snowyco said: Mexican peso has strengthened again against the US Dollar, moving to $18.45 yesterday, and even stronger today at $18.35, It is because of MXN peso strength, not US Dollar weakness. The US Dollar is very strong right now, with the Euro incredibly weak at $1.05, the Pound at $1.28 and the Yen at low weak values too. It looks like the panic-prediction of $20 pesos to $1 US dollar is not happening any time soon. Euro= $1.10 GBP= $1.32 (Yahoo Finance) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gringohombre Posted July 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2016 WOW...Did not know that my original post would generate this much interest. I have to admit that I am in no way a financial expert. My comments were based on a so called financial talking head I saw on TV. Maybe it was wishful thinking on my part. I will be more careful in disclosing my sourcing in the future and leave the financial prognostications to the experts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickS Posted July 12, 2016 Report Share Posted July 12, 2016 gringohombre, it does not take much of anything to set things on fire around here...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrm30655 Posted July 12, 2016 Report Share Posted July 12, 2016 I think you can pretty well bet that the Peso will go through 20 before the end of the year. The only reason that it recovered last week was because the MX CETAs were bumped up by .5%. Oil is the mover for the Peso and I think oil will drop again this fall. If you look, there is a worldwide glut of oil and it only popped up a bit because of trouble in Nigeria. Nigeria seems to have settled it dispute and is coming back on line. Oil storage worldwide is close to capacity and a recession is coming which should reduce oil usage. As far as Brexit, it is a done deal. Teresa May looks like the new leader and she has already said they will be out. Should help Britain in the long run. As far as the much talked about trade deals, they are nothing. 90% of trade both with the EU and Britain are not covered by trade deals anyway. IMHO, the EU is toast. The big banks are in trouble and banks in Italy and Germany are BK and just waiting on the grim reaper to do them in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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