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Possible rain this week.


ibarra

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Any bets that the Guadalajara airport forecast will be a far different event than lakeside? 

Even the Mexican government forecasts for lakeside are rarely accurate while at the same time being very accurate for Guadalajara. Conagua is showing a 5% chance of rain today for Chapala.  Impossible....

 

 

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Not going to happen.  Take a look at the satellite view, high pressure and dry as is normal for this time of year.  Maybe a few afternoon pop up showers around the mountains to the south of here.

A little southerly circulation building over Oaxaca, close to their time of the year for some rain to start.  They need it bad.

Our rains come on the easterlies.  None of that circulation starting up yet.

Should be interesting to see how this far from typical La Niña affects Mexico weather if it does at all.

CA and the U.S. Southwest not only weren't warm and dry as typical for La Niña, they were chilly, snowy and wet.  Big floods in CA, big snowpacks in AZ, CO and NM.  Looked a lot more like an El Niño year there.

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Yup, but not El Niño yet.  -0.2 degree C departure from average SST.  

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/march-2023-enso-update-no-more-la-niña

A good discussion of this strange La Niña that drenched CA and the Southwest here.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/did-la-niña-drench-southwest-united-states-early-winter-202223

Some nice thermal activity east and south of us this afternoon.

isaemex.gif

 

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21 hours ago, dichosalocura said:

You guys do realize that if and when we do get rain this time of year its usually just a light sprinkle or light drizzle.  So don't get too excited.  But miracles can happen.

Miracles are happening as we speak. Gentle downpour here now in Chapala Haciendas...so greatful. Dust be gone for a day or so!!! 😃

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I thought you guys were full of it when you were suggesting it might rain today. Well I was wrong. In upper Ajijic, at the top of Jaurez and toward the west.

Yes it rained rather hard but for a very short time. My rain gauge felt wet to the touch, but there was too little rain to measure anything. Well, at least, it is a little cooler out. Cool enough to get a good nights sleep :) 

n

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40 minutes ago, johanson said:

I thought you guys were full of it when you were suggesting it might rain today. Well I was wrong. In upper Ajijic, at the top of Jaurez and toward the west.

Yes it rained rather hard but for a very short time. My rain gauge felt wet to the touch, but there was too little rain to measure anything. Well, at least, it is a little cooler out. Cool enough to get a good nights sleep :) 

n

It wasn't "you guys" predicting rain, it was the the weather sites. Ajijicweather.com has 60% chance for tonight and 40% chance Wednesday.   

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On 3/13/2023 at 5:21 PM, ibarra said:

It wasn't "you guys" predicting rain, it was the the weather sites. Ajijicweather.com has 60% chance for tonight and 40% chance Wednesday.   

Actually the forecast shown on Ajijic weather is for the Guadalajara airport.  Can't count the number of times it was pouring in Guadalajara and at lakeside it was pure sunshine.  

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1 hour ago, Mostlylost said:

Actually the forecast shown on Ajijic weather is for the Guadalajara airport.  Can't count the number of times it was pouring in Guadalajara and at lakeside it was pure sunshine.  

This is from Rancho del Oro. Predicting rain tonight just like ajijicweather.com. 

https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/mx/ajijic

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No rain of any consequence locally but a lot of wind yesterday evening.  Caused by downdrafts from dry thermal clouds.  I believe there was some rain in the higher elevations east of here.  We are getting some moisture flow from the south.  But the real rains always come from the south easterly winds that start up around the first of June.  Sometimes I wish we had more rain in the "off" season, it sure gets dusty until the rains start.

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19 hours ago, ibarra said:

This is from Rancho del Oro. Predicting rain tonight just like ajijicweather.com. 

https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/mx/ajijic

Maybe I missed your point but....  the Rancho del Oro "site" is, I believe, the private Weather Underground station that one sees by going to ajijicweather.com. This one certainly goes a huge step beyond just the basic data found on a 'normal' WU station!

I also believe that  the historical data shown is derived from the station that for many years was in lower Riberas.

 

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The Rancho Del Oro weather station which is ajijicweather.com transmits all of its data to WeatherUnderground as station IJALISCO38. So all the data in WeatherUnderground station IJALISCO38 is the same as ajijicweather.com.  All of the history is from Rancho Del Oro. None of the history is from the old Riberas site. The Rancho Del Oro site has been up and running and gathering data since 2011.

 

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