Water is released to ease the situation, to provide water for farming, and to replenish the lake... but only when the dam levels get high enough.
You'd have to judge the height of the wall to determine if it will breach, and look at the history of each place. For example, right now it is over the old retaining wall at the malecon in Ajijic, but they built a new wall several feet higher. The park there was under water in 2008, and that's pretty high up.
But old timers will tell you about the days when all of Riberas was under water, almost right up to where the carretera is now.